On sunday, Germany elected a new Bundestag, the German Parliament. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative CDU (and its bavarian sibling CSU) won most seats but suffered heavy losses compared to the last elections in 2013. The social-democratic SPD under former EU Parliament speaker Martin Schulz had the worst result since the Federal Republic of Germany has existed. The Greens and the socialist Left party performed better than expected. But the big news were a very strong result for the far right AfD and the strong comeback of the libertarian FDP which failed to enter parliament by 0.2 percent margin in 2013.
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Since Mr Schulz as SPD leader has already ruled out continuing the “grand calition” with the CDU/CSU the most likely governing coalition will probably between CDU/CSU, FDP and the Greens. We have covered possible coalitions before and predicted that Angela Merkel will continue governing as German chancellor.
Said threeway coalition would unite 393 of the now 709 Members of Parliament. Due to the party colors, black, yellow and green this is referred to as a “Jamaica Coalition” in Germany. A majority of Germans would view such a coalition favorably, but key members of the respective parties are opposed to it. Time will tell whether Jamaica will happen or Germany will see a continuation of the grand coalition, despite Mr Schulz’s veto.
One party is already experiencing its first crisis before constituting its group in the Bundestag: The AfD. Embattled party leader Frauke Petry has announced not join the AfD group in the parliament. Prominent party members have therefore called for her to leave the party altogether.